February 7 – Snow chances increase in mid-February

So far this winter has been an absolute dud for snow-lovers. Providence has seen its third lowest snow total (1.9") on record between December 1 - February 7. Only 1943-44 (0.4") and 1979-80 (0.7") have seen fewer flakes in that time frame. Records date back to 1905. Bridgeport, CT is in the same boat, ranking 3rd on the list of least snowiest in that same time frame. Boston is actually at second place, with just 2006-07 ahead of it. Over the past couple of weeks, there have been signs of the weather pattern featuring more snow for Southern New England, but it has not really materialized - at least in the I-95 corridor. Now, as we start the second week of February tomorrow, we're getting down to crunch time. If there is not any significant snow in the next three weeks, we'll be into March, and before you know it the window will be closing quickly on accumulating snow threats. However, the other way to look at it is to recognize that there are still five weeks until the Ides of March, and they usually feature some snow in our neck of the woods. Here's what the computer models are saying about the next two weeks. There's no chance of snow until at least Sunday night, and the disturbance coming through Sunday night looks light with less than an inch of snow, and maybe nothing, the most likely scenario. A stronger storm arrives in the midweek, until today the European model was not very gung-ho on the snow potential for the storm as it took the center of it too close to the coast and drew in mild air. Today's run is a bit colder, but still a snow to mix/rain scenario. The GFS model is a little weaker, but further south, which helps to lock in cold air and keep the precipitation as mainly snow. It will be interesting to see if the Euro continues trending a bit colder or if the GFS trends warmer to the messy winter mix outcome. Euro model goes from snow to mix in the middle of next week This is the new experimental GFS model that will be operational this year. It shows a colder scenario with all snow in the middle of next week. By the way, the timing on that storm looks like Tuesday night into early Wednesday. After that, both the GEFS and EPS ensembles show a decent chance of more snow through mid-February. I'm not 100% sold on it because the models have at other times this year shown snowy scenarios in the 10-15 day time frame, only to back off as the potential events drew closer. The bottom line, however, is that there is potential for snow between February 13-21, which is something that we haven't been able to say too often this winter. Check out the graphics below for more of my thoughts on how the models see the next two weeks - and particularly days 5-15 playing out. GEFS mean snow is rather impressive for inland Southern New England in the next two weeks. Frankly, I'd be quite surprised if there was 10-18" of snow as predicted. The mean is (of course) and average of all the members. As you can see here, there are only about 3 members without much snow in the next 15 days. That means 85% of the members predict above normal snow in the next two weeks. Again, I'm not sold on it! The EPS mean is not as robust as the GEFS, but still offers 6-10" of snow in the next two weeks throughout most of CT, RI, and E MA. That's a bit more than normal. There is a slightly higher percentage of EPS members that are not buying into a snowy mid-February By my calculation, about 25% of the members predict below normal snow in the next two weeks. On the contrary, about 35% are quite snowy Last, but not least, is the EPS control run which continues the theme of little to no snow through mid-February. It has 2" or less south of I-95, and only 2-4" elsewhere. I always weigh the control run more heavily than the other ensemble members, and it's lack of snow gives me trepidation about declaring a decidedly snowy mid-February in CT, RI, and SE MA In summary, I think that there will be more snow in the next two weeks than we've seen in the past month, but that's not saying much! I also favor the lion's share of the snow in inland areas, as has been the case this winter. The 30-year average snow for Providence and Bridgeport in the next two weeks is about 5". It's about 7.5" for Hartford. I think we'll see more than that, but it may not be by much.

February 7 – Snow chances increase in mid-February

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Fred Campagna

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Fred Campagna

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