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February 24 – Still some winter left

It has been an active February in Southern New England with several snow/ice events and seasonably cold temperatures. The last couple of days have offered a hint of early-spring. Unfortunately, March can be a rough month and there are likely to be a few brushes with snow in the next several weeks.

Rain is likely on Saturday

The near-term offers cooler and quiet weather through the end of the workweek. It will likely not reach the 50s on Thursday, and Friday will not be much above 40°. A storm system coming through on Saturday is much more likely to bring rain than snow with temps in the 40s. The weather looks fairly quiet and mild from Sunday through Monday.

The next chance of any snow is in the middle of next week as a storm system comes out of the Tennessee Valley and heads for the Mid-Atlantic. Right now, rain is favored over snow, but a slightly shift south in the track would make it interesting.

March typically features wild weather swings, and we have had plenty of March snowstorms in the last couple of decades. It’s tough to say if there will be another one this year, but the timing of the snow becomes increasingly important as the sun angle gets higher in the sky. A few years ago a March storm was famously over-forecasted by some. Thankfully, I wasn’t among those who neglected to account for the time of day and temperature when the snow arrived. All RI schools cancelled and the snow never stuck to the pavement. To get a big storm in March, it’s best if it at least starts at night and sticks to the pavement without having to fight the high sun.

Recent 30-45 day forecast ensembles have shown near to above normal snow in Southern New England for the rest of winter. It will be interesting to see what the new model runs predict when released later this week.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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